TUF 9 Final

Well for this ppv I have one bet. Not with any friends but this time online at a site called sportsbook.

The fight I have eyeballed that had reasonable odds was

Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz
So lets break down the fight. I'll tell you right now Nick Diaz has been on a role in Strikeforce and he has become one of my favorite fighters and hes just so bizarre and so different from all the other fighters out there and I think Nate is going to imitate his brother and the success is going to go to him as well.

Nate Diaz is undefeated in my books in the UFC. His only loss was due to judges being retarded and were not watching the same fight as me. So hes going to be really motivated by getting back on the winning streak that he has complied. I usually won't bring up win history's as it has nothing to do with the fighters fighting but this time I Just have the feeling Diaz is more motivated the Joe as hes been on a losing streak as well. The problem with him is he knows he can never get any better then a gate keeper to the upper guys and the lower guys. So his motivation is a whole lot less. So I give cardio to Diaz if it goes to the 3rd round.

Stand up I will have to give Diaz as well as hes a tall skinny guy but his reach is through the roof in this division due to his body. Joe on the other hand has a completely different body type as hes more built and short. The advantage for me is diaz has more reach and is taller. Meaning Joe is going to have to punch up. Meaning hes not going to be use to punching at that angle making his punches a lot lighter. So he wont have his KO power. Diaz will have the stand up dominated in my books.

Ground game. Since Joe is compact and built I really don't think he will have to much problems taking down Diaz. But I don't know if its a wise decision to take down someone that's awesome in Jiu Jitsu and a student of the Gracie family. Joe has battled 2 people with awesome Jiu Jitsu and that's Kenny Florian and BJ Penn. He was submitted by both these guys. Yes Joe has ground and pound but since Jiu Jitsu is basically Diaz's specialty and he already knows Joe's specialty is wrestling. Diaz has a far superior training camp as he knows what to expect. I give the ground game to Diaz but wouldn't be surprised if my guy gets pounded out. But I find that hard as Diaz can take a punch.'

Conclusion expect to see a decision if it stands as Diaz he has better stand up to score points and I really dont see a KO here for Joe and definitely no KO for Diaz as he doesn't have Knock out power.
If it goes to the ground I see a triangle choke. I forgot to talk about Joes guillotine choke but do you really think Diaz is going to put his neck out there for Joe to grab when he knows he has a awesome grip?

I have $70 to bet on this fight and if I win I only win roughly $50. So on paper if everything goes right my guy should win. Hopefully I don't jinx it :) This is on Spike TV so enjoy a free night of fights and don't forget about Strikeforce tommrrow (FRIDAY) I have $20 on that fight but its not really worth me talking about those fights as well its just $20...